Status quo and outlook for the European economy

Medium-term econo­mic deve­lo­p­ment is incre­asingly deter­mi­ned by the 4 D’s digi­ta­liza­tion, decar­bo­niza­tion, deglo­ba­liza­tion and demo­gra­phic change — and the ability of count­ries to address them. The “geopo­li­ti­cal risk factor” is also parti­cu­larly important in the short term, and not just because of the ongo­ing armed conflict. The US elec­tions in the fall of 2024 will be a major event. In our base­line scena­rio, we assume that Donald Trump wins the US presi­den­tial elec­tion and is elec­ted with a Repu­bli­can majo­rity in both houses of parlia­ment. can initi­ally “rule through”.

Further poli­ti­cal pola­riza­tion also seems likely in Europe. The clear re-elec­­tion of Ursula von der Leyen as EU Commis­sion Presi­dent has preven­ted the EU from ente­ring a second Trump presi­dency without leader­ship. With the expec­ted streng­thening of the poli­ti­cal frin­ges in the 2025 Bundes­tag elec­tions and, in parti­cu­lar, the elec­tion of Marine Le Pen as French Presi­dent in 2027, there is a threat of new trou­ble. We have assu­med both in our base scenario.