Greeting | Weaponization of Everything — The new dimension of geopolitical influence

In 2024, more than half of the world’s popu­la­tion will have gone to the polls.

The US presi­den­tial elec­tions in parti­cu­lar will have an enorm­ous impact on the global secu­rity archi­tec­ture and the stabi­lity of world markets. They will signi­fi­cantly shape the future direc­tion of trans­at­lan­tic rela­ti­ons. Howe­ver, it is not only Euro­pean poli­tics and the economy that will be affec­ted. The future deve­lo­p­ment of rela­ti­ons between the USA and China will also be decisi­vely shaped by the US presi­den­tial elec­tions. In total, natio­nal elec­tions were held in 64 count­ries around the world in 2024 — from Russia to Iran, India, South Africa, Taiwan and France, to name but a few. Para­do­xi­cally, these chan­ges tend to contri­bute to growing uncer­tainty and promote tensi­ons more than coope­ra­tion. In Taiwan, the elec­tion victory of Lai Ching-te of the Demo­cra­tic Progres­sive Party, whom China regards as a sepa­ra­tist, is exacer­ba­ting the stra­te­gic alignment of the two count­ries and rela­ti­ons between the US and China. In France, the rise of Marine Le Pen’s right-wing natio­na­list party Rassem­blem­ent Natio­nal and the left-wing alli­ance Nouveau Front Popu­laire cast doubt on Macron’s posi­tion. Right-wing parties such as the AfD, the French RN and the FPÖ in Austria also bene­fi­ted from the elec­tions to the Euro­pean Parlia­ment. Even if the demo­cra­tic center of the Parlia­ment largely holds its ground and right-wing pres­sure does not neces­s­a­rily have to be inter­pre­ted as an indi­ca­tor of the future direc­tion of the EU, the EU and its citi­zens should prepare them­sel­ves for drastic chan­ges. 2024 was ther­e­fore a year of poli­ti­cal uphe­aval in which key bila­te­ral rela­ti­onships were reshaped. The conse­quen­ces of this can also be felt on the finan­cial markets. Incre­asing uncer­tainty and geopo­li­ti­cal chan­ges can lead to hesi­tant invest­ment beha­vior and manage­ment decis­i­ons have to be made without their conse­quen­ces being fore­seeable. Inves­tors tend to sell risky invest­ments and with­draw into suppo­sedly safer invest­ments such as govern­ment bonds or gold. This shows that market stabi­lity, like global poli­ti­cal stabi­lity, is influen­ced by conflicts and tensions. 

Busi­ness and poli­tics are ther­e­fore inseparable.

This is refer­red to as the “Weapo­niza­tion of Ever­y­thing”. This term descri­bes the poli­ti­ciza­tion of busi­ness and tech­no­logy as tools for geopo­li­ti­cal or stra­te­gic purpo­ses — a trend that will conti­nue in 2025. The suppo­sedly “apoli­ti­cal entre­pre­neur” no longer exists. Both in terms of dome­stic policy — with a clear demar­ca­tion against right-wing popu­list tenden­cies — and foreign policy — with a view to market posi­tio­ning, the supply of criti­cal raw mate­ri­als, global produc­tion archi­tec­ture and finan­cial risks in liqui­dity manage­ment — compa­nies are facing (geo)political challenges. 

Entre­pre­neurs must not be naive.

I often come across the argu­ment “We do busi­ness, not poli­tics” in corpo­rate circles. — In view of the geopo­li­ti­cal shifts, howe­ver, this atti­tude is no longer viable. Sanc­tions, espe­ci­ally in the finan­cial, energy and raw mate­ri­als sectors, conti­nue to increase. For exam­ple, the Chinese govern­ment recently impo­sed further export rest­ric­tions on the important semi-metal antim­ony. The area of hybrid warfare with anti-infor­­ma­­tion campaigns and cyber­at­tacks on compa­nies, parti­cu­larly in the area of criti­cal infra­struc­ture, and the debate about tariffs and non-tariff trade barriers also remain key issues for compa­nies and inves­tors. Whether desi­red or not, entre­pre­neurs cannot escape this trend and must become more “geopo­li­ti­cal” in their mind­set — a lear­ning process that is curr­ently also taking place in poli­tics. Nevert­hel­ess, compa­nies and inves­tors are not power­less in the face of this deve­lo­p­ment! — There is considera­ble room for maneu­ver. Even with compa­ra­tively small invest­ments to streng­then a company’s resi­li­ence and ability to react quickly, compa­nies can gain market share and over­take compe­ti­tors. Conver­sely, for inves­tors this means that even more thorough “poli­ti­cal due dili­gence” pays off, for exam­ple to what extent a company is signi­fi­cantly depen­dent on raw mate­ri­als from China or only covers a low level of verti­cal inte­gra­tion. This means that 2025 will also be a year of geopo­li­tics for entre­pre­neu­rial acti­vity under chan­ged frame­work condi­ti­ons, which, howe­ver, repre­sent at least as great an oppor­tu­nity as a risk. 

Dr. Timo Blenk