Editorial 2012

The return of the financial and debt crisis in the summer of 2011 hit many investors unexpectedly. Volatile markets, deteriorating economic forecasts and a general loss of confidence led to uncertainty and a flight into supposedly safe investments. The debt discussion in the euro area and the loss of the AAA rating for U.S. government bonds are raising doubts about the concept of risk-free interest rates. Payment promises that were considered safe only a short time ago are being called into question, and some of the remaining safe havens are already showing negative real returns.

The difficulties on the stock market are also unmistakable. For more than ten years, the Dax has been moving sideways with strong fluctuations. The massive slump in August 2011 alone wiped out two years' worth of price gains within two weeks. Focusing on conservative stocks such as large utilities and other dividend stocks has offered investors as little protection from increased volatility as international diversification.

Institutional investors are forced to generate their return targets even during the crisis. But even a low actuarial interest rate of 3-4 percent is no longer achievable with a safety-oriented bond portfolio. Equity investments to enhance returns expose the portfolio to rapidly changing market sentiments. Investors who want to achieve their return targets sustainably and at a reasonable level of risk can therefore no longer rely on conventional securities strategies. They need investments that can offset fluctuations in the stock market, provide some inflation protection, and have a proven track record of stable returns over several economic cycles.